Key Finding: Income Volatility
Recipients of the $500 experienced less income volatility than those who did not receive the guaranteed income, permitting households to stabilize and plan for the future.
The control group experienced nearly 1.5X income volatility than the treatment group -- the treatment group’s income fluctuated by 46.4% monthly while the control group experienced a 67.5% monthly income fluctuation.
This stabilized previously vulnerable households as the pandemic started.
One year into the program, recipients had more liquidity to pay for unexpected expenses.
At the start of the program, only 25% of recipients would pay for an unexpected expense with cash or a cash equivalent. One year in, 52% of those in the treatment group would pay for an unexpected expense with cash or a cash equivalent.
In February 2019, 25% of the control group would pay for an unexpected expense with cash or a cash equivalent. One year in, only 28% of those in the control group would pay for an unexpected expense with cash or a cash equivalent.
The guaranteed income enabled recipients to make payments on their debt.
In February 2019, only 52% of recipients were making payments on their debts. One year in, 62% of recipients were making payments on their debts.
Over the same time period, the control group saw a decrease in the percent of people making payments on their debt — from 48% in February 2019 to 44% in February 2020.
This liquidity was pooled across fragile family networks alleviating strain from unpaid care work, food insecurity, and underemployment.
Income volatility data was measured monthly through self-reporting and calculated by the coefficient of variation, similar to the method used by the U.S. Financial Diaries study. To determine the coefficient of variance, we divided the standard deviation of monthly income by the mean of monthly income (Morduch and Siwicki, 2017). Household income volatility was measured through monthly text-based prompts and online surveys every six months. Use of the coefficient of variance allows for comparisons of volatility of both higher and lower income households.
